The limits to growth by Donella H. Meadows

By Donella H. Meadows

Какие-то ослы разместили в libgene под этим названием совершенно другую книгу. ("Пределы роста. 30 лет спустя"). Рад представить оригинальное издание 1972 года.

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The doubling time is approximately equal to 70 divided by the growth rate, as illustrated in table 1. 0 Doubling time (years) 700 140 70 35 18 14 10 7 MODELS AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH Exponential growth is a dynamic phenomenon, which means that it involves elements that change over time. In simple systems, like ·the bank account or the lily pond, the cause of exponential growth and its future course are relatively easy to understand. When many different quantities are growing simultaneously in a system, however, and when all the quantities are interrelated in a complicated way, analysis of the causes of growth and of the future behavior of the system becomes very difficult indeed.

Interest. And so on. As we go around and around the loop, the accumulated money in the account grows exponentially. The rate of interest (constant at 7 percent) determines the gain around the loop, or the rate at which the bank account grows. We can begin our dynamic analysis of the long-term world situation by looking for the positive feedback loops underlying the exponential growth in the five physical quantities we have already mentioned. In particular, the growth rates of two of these elements-population and industrialization-are of interest, since the goal of many development policies is to encourage the growth of the latter relative to the former.

US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facti and Probltmi, 1970. 1 soURcE : US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facti anti Probltmi, 1970. Bauxite expressed in aluminum equivalent. • US Bureau of Mines contingency forecasts, based on assumptions that coal will be used to synthesize gas and liquid fuels. 1 Includes US Bureau of Mines estimates of gold demand for hoarding. "'The platinum group metals are platinum, palladium, iridium, osmium, rhodium, and ruthenium. ADDITIONAL SOURCES: P. T. : Rand McNally, 1966). Mttal Statinici (Somerset, NJ : American Metal Market Company, 1970 ) .

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